Daily Ag Direction 6/24/24
Good Morning!
Markets feel a little firmer today despite trading lower to start the session. Wheat was down to $5.72 before recovering now to $5.75. It seems like a small thing but it would be a big advantage to set some type of floor here. There are three lows offering support at $5.66, $5.53 and $5.44. All are within reasonable trade territory if we keep grinding lower. Implied volatility in wheat options has skyrocketed to nearly match contract highs. This is important to consider if a producer has interest in more complicated marketing strategies. The good news is that as we continue lower, the wheat-corn spread is favorable to see wheat enter feed rations. Positive moves in corn should support wheat well. Yields in Russia are stabilizing and some estimates are coming in with increasing outlooks on bushels. Corn is not interested in entertaining the news from flooding. Typically flood damage is difficult to predict and the market will wait until we progress through the growing season. There is still a decent amount of corn on farm and cash prices are firm to reflect that. It will take more bad news than normal to move the market as participants see the on-farm supplies as a big buffer to any production concerns. In reality we are 60 days from seeing new corn so new crop influences will be here before we know it. Soybeans are finding favor this morning without much chatter as to why. Bean charts are exploring support levels so thankfully fundamentals are not bearish enough to break through.
July ’24 KC Wheat -5.5 @ $5.76
July ’25 KC Wheat -5.2 @ $6.18
July Corn -6 @ $4.29
Dec Corn -6.6 @ $4.47
July Beans +7.5 @ $11.68
Nov Beans -1 @ $11.19
Sept Feeders -0.250 @ $259.725
Aug Live +0.250 @ $183.400
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!