Daily Ag Direction 5/1/24
Good Morning!
Dry weather has given way to flooding in Northern Oklahoma and parts of Southern Kansas. Reports of hail continue to come in affecting the wheat crop and newly planted corn across many parts of our trade territory. The images below are the 14-day accumulated rainfall for Kansas and Oklahoma.
Observed 14-day rain totals could certainly be spread out more evenly as long track storms tend to form and remain stationary or “train” over the same areas. NOAA predicts that most of Oklahoma and Kansas will see above average rainfall throughout the month of May so we will have to see if quality becomes a concern as this wheat crop gets closer to maturity. Right now, the crop has received enough moisture in many areas to make it to harvest.
Russian and Ukraine wheat crops are currently suffering for moisture with 40% of the Russian and 25% of the Ukrainian wheat crop showing stress. Roughly a 1/3 of those crops have received half of normal rainfall in the last 90 days. As evidenced by recent market commentary, this is a weather dominated market now.
There are some murmurs that corn planting conditions have delayed planting enough to be concerning. However, we are likely 2 weeks away from any danger. The American corn farmer can accomplish planting remarkably fast and traders will wait to see if any delays actually affect yield. Most commentary has new crop values at a better chance of eroding barring any major production concerns. That certainly isn’t a groundbreaking take, but we are lacking excitement here.
Soybeans are looking for new reasons to be positive as wheat falters and the Argentinian strike is rumored to be over already. Demand metrics are relatively uninspiring and funds remain short. Look for the month of May to spark some weather related trade but I dare not say to which side. Something will show up and have a marketing plan when it does.
July 24 KC Wheat -8.5 @ $6.27
July 25 KC Wheat -5.5 @ $6.74
July Corn -2 @ $4.45
Dec Corn -2.5 @ $4.67
July Beans +2 @ $11.65
Nov Beans +1 @ $11.61
Aug Feeders +.85 @ $256.35
June Live +$1.050 @ $174.17
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!