Daily Ag Direction 4/22/24
Good Morning!
The wheat market is having a big day on production concerns across the U.S., Middle East turmoil and overly wet conditions in France. A couple of big trading days and we are trading above $6.00/bu. on new crop July KC wheat. I believe there will be a decent amount of farmer selling at this level so a rally may be muted. However, a strong end to today and follow through buying tomorrow could set up an interesting chart situation.
If this market can rally then resistance sets up near $6.20/bu. and roughly $6.35/bu. Beyond that it would take some more development fundamentally to drive the market higher. It will be something important to watch as this is the best preharvest selling opportunity we have had since mid February.
Corn is trading slightly higher today as producers do not look as interested in selling at recent futures values. Yield risk to the current crop will be minimal for quite some time and there is still a large short position on. The rally in wheat gives corn some breathing room but will trade independently from that action for the most part. The Brazil safrinha crop is moving into a drier and warmer weather outlook in the near term.
Soybeans have faced plenty of adversity lately but are up modestly this morning. Charts look to be oversold and there isn’t any production concern this early to worry about. Brazil will win the export battle from here and Chinese soybean imports for March are reported at 2.2 mmt compared to 3 mmt coming from Brazil. The March numbers represent a 5-year low. Soybeans are currently 167,000 contracts short and bean oil sees large NOPA crush values along with a weaker crude oil bid and increasing pressure from Palm oil imports.
May KC Wheat +23 @ $6.04
July KC Wheat +23 @ $6.06
May Corn +6 @ $4.40
Dec Corn +5 @ $4.71
May Beans +6 @ $11.57
Nov Beans +7.5 @ $11.69
Aug Feeders +$4.25 @ $257.73
June Live +$1.85 @ $177.53
Please reach out to your CEA Risk Management Advisor if you have any questions. Have a great day!